E-Mini Player: EMini S&P 500 Futures Trading

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 01/27

2012-01-28T19:57:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 01/26

2012-01-26T16:41:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 01/25

2012-01-25T17:27:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 01/24

2012-01-24T15:21:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 01/23

2012-01-24T15:20:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 01/20

2012-01-20T16:25:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 01/19

2012-01-19T16:06:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 01/18

2012-01-18T15:32:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 01/17

2012-01-17T15:23:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 01/13

2012-01-13T21:04:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 01/12

2012-01-12T15:34:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 01/11

2012-01-11T15:39:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 01/10

2012-01-10T15:46:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 01/09

2012-01-09T15:25:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 01/06

2012-01-07T13:26:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 01/05

2012-01-05T16:13:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 01/04

2012-01-04T15:29:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 01/03

2012-01-03T16:33:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 12/30

2011-12-30T23:28:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 12/29

2011-12-29T15:45:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 12/28

2011-12-28T22:05:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 12/27

2011-12-28T22:03:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 12/23

2011-12-23T16:06:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 12/22

2011-12-22T17:13:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 12/21

2011-12-21T15:29:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 12/20

2011-12-20T17:22:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 12/19

2011-12-19T18:07:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 12/16

2011-12-18T11:50:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 12/15

2011-12-15T21:03:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 12/14

2011-12-14T19:23:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 12/13

2011-12-13T20:59:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 12/12

2011-12-12T17:32:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 12/9

2011-12-11T12:48:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 12/8

2011-12-08T15:50:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 12/7

2011-12-07T15:20:00.003-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 12/6

2011-12-06T20:18:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 12/5

2011-12-05T17:54:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Friday 12/2

2011-12-03T01:00:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Thursday 12/1

2011-12-01T16:53:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Wed. 11/30

2011-11-30T15:54:00.001-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Tuesday 11/29

2011-11-29T16:12:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Chart for Monday 11/28

2011-11-28T16:26:00.002-06:00

5-min Chart with EMiniPlayer.net Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Wed. 11/23

2011-11-23T12:09:00.004-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The fast liquidation move below 1180.50 mentioned in yesterday's Trade Plan materialized in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off 3 ticks ahead of the 1166 Support. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1170-1172, followed by Initial Support at 1165.50-1167. Below 1165.50, 1157-1158 is a KEY area (NVPOC at 1158), and we could get an aggressive Buy Response there. Use the Opening Range to determine which side is in short-term control (Price above OR = Buyers in Control, Price below OR = Sellers in Control). Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the expectation is for a Balanced session, with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance (b-Shaped profile with Selling tail). The 1184-1185.25 Resistance Zone could cap the upside, with 1189-1191 being an extreme (unlikely that we'll tag this today). The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, so expect lighter volume today with choppy price action -- be selective on Trade Location and setups. ES is set to open below Value.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Tuesday 11/22

2011-11-22T16:41:00.001-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
Sellers remained in Control and the 1199 Resistance Level capped the upside in the overnight session. Heading into the day session, we have Initial Support at 1184-1185.25. Holding above that area would bring the previous VPOC at 1190 and the gap fill at 1190.75 into play as targets. Unless we get an Open Drive to the downside, there's a high probability of testing the 1189.75-1190.75 area. Today's Bull/Bear Zone is at 1189-1191. On a break and hold above 1191, we have yesterday's Value Area High and the overnight VPOC at 1195.75. A break-out above 1195.75 would be indicative of Initiative Buying, and we'd have to be cautious on the Short side. On the downside, a break below yesterday's Low of 1180.50 could lead to a quick move down to 1174.50 and 1170-1172. Overall, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be more active on tests of Support now and the short-term bias is Bullish above 1184-1185.25.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Monday 11/21

2011-11-21T13:20:00.003-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
We had the Bull/Bear Area to establish bias at 1211-1213 and the Notes for O/N Session mentioned that "holding below it brings the 1199 and 1189.50-1191.50 Zones into play; the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active there on first test." ES failed at Friday's Low, and we got a test of 1199 and a double-bottom 2 ticks ahead of the 1191.50 Support. From there, Responsive Buyers pushed ES back to the 1199 area (broken support = resistance). Heading into the day session, we have Resistance at 1199 and 1201.25-1203.25, and Initial Support at 1189-1191. ES is set to open below Value, which could attract Responsive Buyers -- we want to see an Open Drive to the downside or an Open Auction Out of Range, with ES holding below the OR High and the Opening price before pressing on the Sell side. Holding above the Opening Range could result in a test of Initial Resistance at 1207-1209, and the Bull/Bear Zone at 1211-1213. Above that, we have the gap fill at 1213.50 and the previous VPOC at 1214. On the downside, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active at 1189-1191. A swift break of that Support Area would indicate very weak Buyers.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Friday 11/18

2011-11-18T12:14:00.002-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES held above the 1208.50 Support in the overnight session while the 1229-1231 Bull/Bear Zone capped the upside. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be more active off the open. Today's Bull/Bear Zone to establish bias is at 1229.25-1231.25; Sellers remain in Control below, while a break and hold above it would indicate Buyers re-gaining Control. The primary downside targets include the gap fill at 1215 and the previous VPOC at 1211. Yesterday's Value Area Low is at 1212.75, and unless we're getting strong Selling, it's safer to cover/scale-out of Shorts by 1213 since Responsive Buyers could be active in that area. We have Initial Resistance at 1224-1226; a break and hold above that area would indicate weak Sellers and ES could re-test the 1234 area. Overall, if we hold above 1209-1211, the expectation is for ES to balance within yesterday's range, while a break below 1209 could result in a test of 1203.25 and 1199-1201. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias. Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the focus will be on the Sell side off the open.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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Dan Ariely asks, Are we in control of our decisions?

2011-11-17T23:52:00.000-06:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Thursday 11/17

2011-11-17T18:20:00.001-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The 1239.25-1241.25 Resistance provided ideal trade location to Sell in the overnight session. Responsive Buyers shut off the Selling at the 1220.25 Support, and pushed ES back to yesterday's range. Heading into the day session, 1229-1231 is a KEY price area for Buyers. We'll be using the 1229-1231 area to establish short-term bias, and the 1244.50-1246.50 Bull/Bear Zone for overall bias. The primary catalyst this morning is the Philly Fed Survey at 9 AM (CT) -- we typically get range-bound two-way trade heading into this econ report, so be mindful of that during the first half hour. Above 1229-1231, we have Initial Resistance at 1239.25-1241.25, followed by 1244.50-1246.50 (Bull/Bear Zone) and the Resistance Zone at 1248.50-1250.50 (NVPOC at 1248.75). Below 1229, we have Initial Support at 1223-1225, followed by 1218.25-1220.25 and 1214-1215 (NVPOC at 1214). ES is set to open below Value.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Wed. 11/16

2011-11-16T15:39:00.001-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES balanced in a wide range in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off ahead of the 1237.75 open gap, while 1258.75 capped the upside. Heading into the day session, we have the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1248-1250 (Previous VPOC at 1249) and Initial Resistance at 1251.75-1253.75 (Open Gap at 1253.75). On the downside, we still have an Open Gap at 1237.75 and a NVPOC at 1237. The 1229-1231 Initial Support is KEY for Buyers, and a break and hold below it could eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1214 and 1207.50 into play. On the upside, holding above 1244 would open the door for testing the Bull/Bear Area as well as the Resistance Zones above. On the upside, the 1256.75-1258.75 Resistance Zone is KEY. A breakout above that area would eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1273.75 and 1278.25 and the Open Gaps at 1273.25 and 1281 into play. The next primary catalyst in pre-market is Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (CT), while the primary catalyst during the day session is the Housing Market Index at 9 AM (CT). The short-term bias heading into the day is bearish, but I expect Responsive Buyers at the Support Zones below with 1229-1231 being the one to hold. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias off the open. Sellers are in Control below 1244-1246 (Pre-Mkt Resistance).

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Tuesday 11/15

2011-11-15T16:41:00.003-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
We had the new Bull/Bear Area at 1247-1249, and the break and hold below it resulted in a move down to the NVPOC at 1237. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1235.25-1237.25 (NVPOC 1237 and Open Gap 1237.75), followed by Initial Support at 1229.50-1231.50. The expectation is for Responsive Buyers to hold ES above Initial Support. A break below 1229 would indicate Sellers back in Control and ES could be setting up for eventually moving down to the NVPOC at 1214. On the upside, the primary target is the 1247-1249 Bull/Bear Area, followed by the Open Gap at 1252. A break and hold above 1252 would bring the 1256.25-1258.25 Initial Resistance Zone into play, as well as the 1261.50 NVPOC and the Open Gap at 1261.75. The primary catalyst this morning is Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (CT) and Business Inventories at 9 AM (CT). Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to determine immediate bias. If we open in the 1237 Area or below it, anything but an Open Drive to the downside would provide edge to Buyers.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Monday 11/14

2011-11-14T15:22:00.002-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The 1270.75 Resistance held to the tick in the overnight session and we got a pullback to the low 1250s, where Responsive Buyers were active on first test. Heading into the day session, we have the previous VPOC at 1261.50 and the previous close (gap fill) at 1261.75. A break above Initial Resistance would bring 1270.75 into play, with the open gap at 1273.25 and NVPOC at 1273.75 above that. The 1272.75-1274.75 will likely cap the upside. In the event of a downside move, we have Support at 1251-1253 followed by the Bull/Bear Area at 1248.25-1249.25. The selling could shut off by 1248.25. With no important econ releases, the expectation is for a Balanced session with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance. Overall, Buyers remain in Control above the Bull/Bear Area with 1272.75-1274.75 as the final upside target on the day. Use the opening range, and opening type to determine immediate bias off the open.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Video Review for Friday 11/11/2011

2011-11-14T02:33:00.004-06:00

The following two videos review and recap Friday 11/11/2011:
Part 1
Part 2

The videos were recorded before the Sunday night Globex open and mentioned that ES could make a push for 1270, and ES made a push towards 1270 off the Globex open. We have Resistance at 1270.75, and 1272.75-1274.75 could cap the upside in the overnight session.

ES - Trade Plan & 5-min Chart for 11/11/2011

2011-11-14T02:25:00.002-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
In the overnight session, ES held above the 1233.75 Support and tested the 1251 Resistance. Heading into the day, lets keep in mind that today is Veteran's day and the bond market as well as banks are closed, which could lead to a lower volume, range-bound Balanced session. ES is set to open above Value, and any push above the overnight high could attract Responsive Sellers. On the upside, we have Pre-Mkt Resistance at 1251-1253, and Initial Resistance at 1256.50-1258.50; expecting the Buying to shut off there. On the downside, the Selling could shut off by the 1235.75-1237.75 Support, with 1230-1232 being an extreme. This all assumes that we get a normal market, NOT driven by unexpected news out of Europe. The primary catalyst this morning is Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT). Use the opening range, and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish short-term directional bias and the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1260.50 to establish overall directional bias.

5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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11/11/11 - Veteran's Day

2011-11-11T05:04:00.004-06:00

Friday is Veteran's day (bank holiday) and the bond market is closed. Here are a couple of charts from last year's Veteran's day. I hope you find them helpful.

"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes"

ES 5-minute Chart from 11/11/2010

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ES Daily Volume Profile Chart from 11/11/2010

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ES - Trade Plan & 5-min Chart for 11/10/2011

2011-11-10T16:30:00.006-06:00

Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES found Responsive Buyers at the 1219.75 Support in the overnight session. The break above the 1233.50-1235.50 Resistance led to a test of yesterday's VPOC at 1244.75. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active on tests of Resistance, and Sellers remain in Control below the 1257-1259 Bull/Bear Area. The expectation is for Responsive Sellers to push ES back into yesterday's range -- that will be the real test of Responsive Buyers. ES could still setup for testing 1257 if we see aggressive Buyers enter the market at the Support Zones below -- 1257 is still a valid upside target, but we'll likely head lower before we head higher. Use the Opening Range and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish immediate bias. Anything but an Open Drive to the upside will provide edge on the Short side up here. ES will need to break and hold below 1240 in order to gain some momentum on the downside.

Today's 5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones

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ES - Volume Profile Composite from 10/4/2011

2011-11-09T15:55:00.005-06:00

Click here to view in Full Size.

Jon Stewart on Jon Corzine, MF Global

2011-11-09T10:39:00.001-06:00

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Friday Laughs: Triumph Visits Occupy Wall Street

2011-11-04T13:59:00.000-05:00

We Are Traders - A tribute to all those who trade

2011-06-02T05:41:00.000-05:00

Using the IB Range in Your Trading

2011-05-20T12:09:00.007-05:00

Stats are your friend. The stat that has seemed to come into play for me almost every day this week is the normal IB range. Statistically the normal IB range for ES is 6-8 points. The extreme for an IB range would be 10-12 points. To clarify the IB stands for Initial Balance, which is obtained from the 1st hour high to the 1st hour low of the cash session.

Ok great, now how do you use this information to your advantage? Regardless of what technique or system you use, you should have pre-defined levels of interest for the day’s trading session. Once the trading range starts to approach one of your levels, it is either a good time to close an existing trade that has been going in your direction and/or look for a counter-trend rotation.

Another analogy that I’ve heard applied to the IB range is that the width of the IB range is similar to a lamp base. The narrower the range, the farther it will tip over when it breaks. The wider the range, the more stable it is. With a wide IB of 8-10 points, one would look for signs of responsive buying in close proximity to the IB Low. I’ll use today May 20th, 2011 as an example. Today, the first hour high was established at 40.50. We had some negative news and ES started driving towards our first support zone for the day. The zone ranged from 32.50-30.50 which would put us at an 8-10pt IB range. I saw some positive tick divergence at 32.25 so I went long there. We got a 2 pt rotation from there which allowed me to scale out of most of my position. Given the internals and context at the time, I expected the IB Low to be tested and broken. Given the wide IB range I expected responsive buyers to be active below the IB Low. So I looked to my next support zone which was 29-27.50. Again I saw some positive divergence on the first test of the zone and even more divergence on the second test. Responsive buyers were clearly active below the wide IB.

Conversely on days that we have a narrow IB range, say in the 5-6 point range, you will typically see further extension and I wouldn’t look for counter-trend trades until typically 1.5x - 2x IB range has been achieved.

To summarize:

-Average IB range is 6-8 pts with 10-12 pts being the extreme in the current environment.

-Wide IB: responsive buyers below the IB and responsive sellers above the IB.

-Narrow IB: expect range extension once broken.

ES 1-Minute Chart for 5/20/2011

By Scott (@TWSS79 on Twitter)

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 05/09/11

2011-05-14T13:08:00.002-05:00

Monday 5/09

Tuesday 5/10

Wednesday 5/11

Thursday 5/12

Friday 5/13

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 05/02/11

2011-05-08T14:15:00.003-05:00

Monday 5/02

Tuesday 5/03

Wed. 5/04

Thursday 5/05

Friday 5/06

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 04/25/11

2011-05-08T14:09:00.003-05:00

Late post, but here are the 5-minute charts for the week of 4/25/11.

Monday 4/25

Tuesday 4/26

Wed. 4/27

Thursday 4/28

Friday 4/29

Divergence Setups at S/R Zones

2011-05-04T22:53:00.002-05:00

I posted several charts on Twitter today showing some of the Divergence setups at the EMiniPlayer Support/Resistance Zones. In case you missed them, here are direct links to the charts (listed by time of day):

Positive Divergence at Support

Negative Divergence at Resistance (Broken Support)

Positive Divergence on Rotation Back Into Support

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 04/18/11

2011-04-24T17:04:00.003-05:00

Monday 4/18

Tuesday 4/19

Wednesday 4/20

Thursday 4/21

Friday 4/22
U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 04/11/11

2011-04-17T22:33:00.003-05:00

Monday 4/11

Tuesday 4/12

Wednesday 4/13

Thursday 4/14

Friday 4/15

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 04/04/11

2011-04-09T14:06:00.003-05:00

Monday 4/04

Tuesday 4/05

Wednesday 4/06

Thursday 4/07

Friday 4/08

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 03/28/11

2011-04-01T20:31:00.003-05:00

Monday 3/28

Tuesday 3/29

Wednesday 3/30

Thursday 3/31

Friday 4/01

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 03/21/11

2011-03-28T02:01:00.005-05:00

Monday 3/21

Tuesday 3/22

Wednesday 3/23

Thursday 3/24

Friday 3/25

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 03/14/11

2011-03-20T20:30:00.008-05:00

I decided to revive this blog towards the end of January, but haven't been able to keep up with it. For now, I'm going to post the 5-min Charts with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones from the prior week. You might ask, what's the point? Well, for one, newer traders can see how price reacts at significant Support/Resistance areas and more importantly, they'll see the significance of Trade Location, and how their trading business can be improved by simply limiting their trading activity to certain price areas.

Monday 3/14

Tuesday 3/15

Wednesday 3/16

Thursday 3/17

Friday 3/18

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Friday 2/11/11

2011-02-11T10:23:00.002-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday evening)
Today's "P"-Shaped Profile is indicative of Short Covering, but we have to keep the Bullish Context in mind and realize that this is Short Covering within an up-trend. We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. We have Resistance at 1316.50-1318.50. A break and hold above 1316.50-1318.50 would confirm Buyers in Control, and could lead to new highs. A break below 1310 could lead to the gap fill at 1307.25, followed by a test of the 1303.75-1305.75 Area. Bigger picture, bias remains bullish above 1303.25.

Trade Plan for Friday 2/11
We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. ES balanced below 1316 in the overnight session and built Acceptance at 1314.75. The 1316.50-1318.50 Resistance identified in last night's Review/Analysis post has capped the upside in pre-market. Heading into the day session, the primary catalyst is the Consumer Sentiment # out at 8:55 AM (CT) -- and considering the market is in Balance, the expected opening type is an Open Auction In Range. Keep an eye on the 1314-1316 Area to determine Control. Holding above 1314-1316 would indicate Buyers in Control, and a break & hold below would indicate Sellers in Control. We have an open gap from yesterday's Close at 1318.75, but holding above 1316 opens the door for new highs so I won't be too aggressive on the Short side up there. The next resistance level above 1322.25 is at 1326, followed by strong resistance at 1329.25-1331.25, and I expect any Buying to shut off there. On the downside, a break below 1310 could take us to the 1307.25 gap fill, followed by a test of the 1304-1306 Support Area. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1303.25, and bigger picture bias remains Bullish above that level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).

ES 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Thursday 2/10/11

2011-02-10T20:35:00.002-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Wednesday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play and we're still working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25. I'm looking for an expansion of the 1310-1322.25 Balance Area. The next primary catalyst is the Jobless Claims # at 7:30 AM (CT).

Trade Plan for Thursday 2/10
ES tested the bottom of the developing Balance Area at 1310 in the overnight session, and built Acceptance at 1312. Above here, we have Resistance at 1315-1316.50, followed by the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25 and yesterday's Close (open gap) at 1319.25. Each of these levels can bring in Responsive Sellers, and I expect some rotation at these areas. A break through the 1318.25-1319.25 Area could lead to new highs, so be cautious on the Short side above that area. If we break below 1310, this will be the first test below the developing Balance Area, and I expect Responsive Buyers to be active at the Support Zones. We have an open gap at 1307.25, followed by Initial Support at 1304-1306, and I anticipate Responsive Buyers there. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1303.25, and the overall bias remains bullish above that level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).

ES 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Wed. 2/9/11

2011-02-09T18:06:00.004-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Tuesday evening)
In the overnight session, we have Support at 1315.25, followed by 1312.25-1313.25. We're working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC of 1318.25.

Trade Plan for Wednesday 2/9
ES has been trending lower in the overnight session, but has managed to hold above the 1315.25 Support and built Acceptance at 1317. We're working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25. The overnight Low at 1316 coincides with yesterday's Value Area Low. We want to see if prices below 1316 bring in additional Sellers or Responsive Buyers. On the upside, we want to see if prices above 1320 bring in additional Buyers or Responsive Sellers. We have an open gap at 1321.75, and will likely see Responsive Sellers active on the first test of 1321-1322. A break & hold below 1316 could take us down to 1310, or even to the open gap at 1307.25, where I expect Responsive Buyers to be active. Bigger picture, Buyers are in Control, so I expect the first push below 1310 to get bought pretty aggressively. Given the overall Bullish context, if we break below 1310, my focus will be on the Long side at the Support Zones. On the upside, a break & hold above 1320 could take us to the 1326 area, followed by 1329-1331. The expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active at 1329-1331, so it's a good place to exit Longs or enter Short. The bias heading into the day is neutral to slightly bearish.

Econ Data
MBA Purchase Applications at 6:00 AM (CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT), and 10-Yr Note Auction at 12:00 PM (CT). Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budget issues in Washington at 9:00 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/8/11

2011-02-08T16:35:00.001-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Monday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play, and we're trading in a Bullish market context. We haven't seen a blow-off top yet and the expectation is for dips to get bought.

Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/8
Overnight, ES has been consolidating within the upper half of yesterday's range, and has built Acceptance at 1315.75. Holding above 1315.75 during the day session opens the door for a test of 1318.25 and yesterday's high (1320), or even a break above it. Above 1322, the next strong resistance area is 1329-1331. I'll be watching for Responsive Sellers on first test of 1318.25 and 1320-1322, but I'll be cautious there since we tested 1320 yesterday, and 1319.75 overnight. I'm anticipating the downside to be limited to yesterday's 24-hour range, so if we get a move down towards the open gap at 1307.25, my focus will be on the Long side. As I mentioned in my Sunday evening post, the bigger picture expectation is for the market to develop a balance area at higher prices. We haven't seen a blow-off top or exhaustion yet. I'm anticipating the upside to be capped at 1326, or 1329-1331 (extreme). Expecting a range-bound, balanced session. Buyers are in Control.

Econ Data
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:30 AM (CT), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 6:45 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and 3-Yr Note Auction at 12:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones
(will be posted later)

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Monday 2/7/11

2011-02-07T15:16:00.004-06:00

Notes for Sunday night Session (posted Sunday evening)
Friday closed with Buyers in Control, but the new yearly high was made on mediocre market internals, which makes it risky to initiate new Longs up here. 1297-1298 is a Key Support Area to keep in mind. I anticipate that area to hold if the market is to continue heading higher. A break below 1297 would be an early warning sign of a shift in Control from Buyers to Sellers. We also have short-term support in the 1303-1304 Area. On the upside, the next significant Resistance Area is at 1314.50-1316.50. I'm looking for the market to build a Balance Area at higher prices this week.

Trade Plan for Monday 2/7
Last night's post called for higher prices and identified the next significant Resistance Area at 1314.50-1316.50. ES broke out to the upside in the overnight session, and the buying shut off 3 ticks ahead of Resistance. I'm looking for the market to build a Balance Area at higher prices, and will be looking for Long opportunities on pullbacks into Support. I'm anticipating rotational trade and a Balanced Session, so I will also look for Responsive Sellers at the Resistance Zones, but given the overall bullish Context, there's more edge on the Long side. Bigger picture, Buyers will remain in Control as long as ES holds above 1297. On the day time-frame, I expect ES to hold above 1303.25, and I expect the 1321-1323 Resistance Zone to cap the upside. The only catalyst today is Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM (CT). Keep an eye out for any new developments out of Egypt.

Econ Data
Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Friday 2/4/11

2011-02-04T23:16:00.001-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. We have Support at 1295.75-1297.75. Buyers are in Control and I expect ES to hold above that area heading into the Employment report.

Trade Plan for Friday 2/4
The Non-Farm Payroll/Employment Report resulted in a new yearly high at 1308.50, which was sold into on the first attempt. I'll be watching the 1303.25-1303.75 Area to determine which side is in Control. That Area can be used as a micro Bull/Bear Line in Sand; Buyers are in Control above and Sellers could take control below. The current high of year (regular trading hours) is 1306, and Buyers are in Control on a break and hold above that Level. I'll be watching the open to get an idea on how aggressive the Buyers are up here. With the high of year at 1306, the risk is well defined on Shorts -- I will not be aggressive on the Short side on a break and hold above 1306 because the next significant Resistance Zone is up at 1314.50-1316.50. I anticipate the upside to be capped there. Focus will be on the Short side only if ES has trouble holding above 1305.75-1306, or breaks below 1303, and then has trouble at Resistance. We're near the recent highs with Buyers in Control.

Econ Data
Non-Farm Payroll/Employment Report at 7:30 AM (CT) and Monster Employment Index.

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Thursday 2/3/11

2011-02-03T15:21:00.002-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Wed. evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. I'm not expecting any significant move in either direction during the overnight session. I anticipate any Selling to shut off at the 1290.25-1292.25 Support Zone.

Trade Plan for Thursday 2/3
Selling in the overnight session shut off a tick ahead of the 1295.50-1297.00 Support Zone. Although we still have some econ reports due later this morning, the next primary catalyst is the NFP/Employment Report out tomorrow morning. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1289.75, and the bias is Bullish above that level, with more edge on the Long side. Watch how price acts around 1301.50-1303; that area will determine whether we make new highs today. On the downside, I anticipate the Selling to shut off by 1290. The overall Bias on the day is Bullish, and the focus is on buying pullbacks. Shorts are risky above 1304 since there's a good chance of making new highs above that price level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims & Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (CT), Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT). Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to reporters at the National Press Club at 11:30 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Wed. 2/2/11

2011-02-02T11:27:00.003-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Tuesday evening)
At this point, Buyers are in Control and I'll be looking to buy pullbacks into Support tomorrow. The existing S/R Zones are in-play, and we have Resistance at 1303.75-1305.75, followed by 1307.50. I expect ES to test 1303.75 at some point tomorrow, so I'll be looking to Short if price moves too far away from that level.

Trade Plan for Wednesday 2/2
It's easy to get caught up in the charts and forget that the markets move because of the participants (the people), and half the U.S. is dealing with a severe snow storm today. Chicago got hit pretty hard and CME has delayed the pit open till 10 AM (CT) -- Globex is unaffected. Participation is likely to be lower today, which means a narrower range, and limited opportunity. After yesterday's Trend Up day, buying pullbacks at Support is a safe strategy. We could get another new high today, but I anticipate Responsive Sellers to be active and sell into it. If we get a push beyond 1306, 1303.75 can be used as a target on Shorts. On the downside, I anticipate the Selling to shut off by the 1290.25-1292.25 Support Zone, if not sooner. I expect a Balanced session, so my focus will be on entering at the edges, while using the middle of the range as a scale-out target and the other side of the range as the final target. A break below 1290 could turn this into a failed breakout -- again, this isn't expected but it's good to be prepared.

Econ Data
MBA Purchase Applications at 6:00 AM (CT), Challenger Job-Cut Report at 6:30 AM (CT), ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/1/11

2011-02-01T16:04:00.004-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Monday night)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. The expectation is for the market to remain Balanced in a range heading into the ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT) tomorrow morning. Bias is on the Sell side for now.

Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/1
At 1290+, ES is trading within our Initial Resistance Zone of 1290-1292, and the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active at the open. Price action in the overnight session is Bullish, but considering the Trade Location, Risk is on the Long side at 1290+. The primary catalyst today is the ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), and new Buyers are unlikely to commit capital up here ahead of that econ #. On the downside, we have 1285-1286.50 as the initial target, followed by yesterday's Close at 1282.50 as an extended target. In the event that we get buying through 1290-1292, I'll still look for the upper Resistance Zones to provide rotation but I'll be cautious on taking Shorts since a test of the recent highs could be in-play. We are working within the 1267.50-1299.50 Balance Area and it's a risky setup for Buyers and Sellers here.

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Monday 1/31/11

2011-01-31T18:30:00.004-06:00

Notes for Sunday Night Session (posted Sunday before Globex Open)
We're working within the 1267.50-1299.50 Balance Area. A break below 1267.50 could bring additional liquidation, and could take price down to the 1257-1258 Area. Considering the market has been in an up-trend, ES could Balance in the 1267.50-1286.50 range. Sellers are in Control below 1286.50, which means greater edge on Short side below there.

Trade Plan for Monday 1/31
ES opened on weakness Sunday evening, and the break below 1267.50 resulted in a fast liquidation down to 1262.25. Responsive Buyers were active on the break and ES recovered more than 100% of the overnight down move, and is currently trading in the 1277 Area. We have Resistance at 1279.75-1281.75, and I'll be watching for Responsive Sellers there on first test with targets at 1275, and 1271.50 (Open Gap). I expect Responsive Buyers to be active on tests below 1268.50. We have Initial Resistance at 1284.75-1286.75, and I anticipate that Area to cap the upside. Price breaking above that Area could put Buyers back in Control. A break and hold below 1275 would confirm Sellers in Control. With the Chicago PMI due at 8:45 AM (released at 8:42 to Subscribers), we could get a choppy open. The expected Opening Type is an Open Auction In Range. Even if we break below 1267.50, my expectation is for a Balanced Session.

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (released to Subscribers at 8:42 AM CT), and Farm Prices at 2:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures -- Balance Area Volume Profile

2011-01-30T13:08:00.003-06:00

One of the metrics I keep track of is VPOC shifts from day to day, and a large VPOC shift typically provides edge in direction of the shift for the next few days. The VPOC on Thursday 1/27 was 1295.75, and it shifted down 23 points to 1272.75 on Friday 1/28. That being said, we still have to keep in mind that the market has been in an up-trend, and week over week, Value actually shifted higher. We have heavy Acceptance at 1270.50. The market may just consolidate within the 1267.50-1286.50 range for a few days until we get some real direction. A break below 1267.50 puts Sellers in Control. Good luck!

ES Volume Profile of the current Balance Area

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Friday 1/28/11

2011-01-28T17:12:00.006-06:00

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday night)
As I mentioned in last night's post, ES is trading near the top of the current Balance Area, and there's additional risk on the Long side. Market internals/breadth is mediocre and today was the lowest volume session of the year. The Russel (TF) has not participated in this break to new highs. We could be approaching an inflection point, and I'd rather be patient and let the Buyers confirm the breakout. A break below 1285 would be an early warning of Sellers taking Control.

Trade Plan for Friday 1/28
Selling in the overnight session shut off at 1290.25, within our 1288.50-1290.50 Support Zone and a tick ahead of the 1290 CHVN. ES made a new yearly high by 1 tick on the GDP release this morning, and Responsive Sellers sold into it. ES holding above 1295.50 opens the door for testing the 1300 Area. With Initial Resistance at 1303.25-1305.25, the upside is fairly limited on the day time-frame here. But we don't want to enter Short too early if ES is holding above 1295.50. Struggling to hold above 1296.75-1298, and breaking below 1295.50 would be a sign of weakness and we could get a pullback to Initial Support at 1289.25-1291.25. Below that Area, we have Support at 1284.75-1286.25 and I expect Responsive Buyers to be active there. The only economic catalyst during the day session is Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT). We have an Open Gap at 1295.75, which could easily get tagged during the open. Following that econ release, the market may just consolidate within the recent range, or breakout and then consolidate in a range.

Econ Data
GDP & Employment Cost Index at 7:30 AM (CT), and Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).

Thursday's 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

Reviving the Public Blog

2011-01-27T22:19:00.005-06:00

I'm thinking of reviving this Blog. If you used to follow this Blog, you know that I started a premium subscription service at www.eminiplayer.net back in April, 2010. I'm going to try sharing some of that content here and see how it goes. Based on the feedback and the time commitment involved, I'll decide whether to continue posting here. Every morning prior to the open, I post the Key Levels along with a Trade Plan for the day on the premium site. To kick start the revival of the blog, I'll start sharing the day's Trade Plan after the Close here on eminiplayer.com. I believe traders will still find it useful and it will provide some insight on how I view the market.

Lets get this blog party started...

Trade Plan for Thursday 1/27/11
We have a Balanced overnight session, with Acceptance at 1292.75. We have Pre-Market Support at 1288.50-1290.50, and Pre-Market Resistance at 1295-1296.50. With the Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims out of the way, the next economic catalyst is the Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (CT). As I mentioned in last night's review post, ES is near the top of the Balance Area so there's higher risk on the Long side until we see some Initiative Buying above 1296.25. At the same time, the downside seems fairly limited in the day time-frame, and the Selling could shut off at the gap fill at 1287.50, or the 1285 Support Area. Since Buyers have been in Control, I'm anticipating a breakout and test of the 1300 Level, but I'm not a break-out trader so I will only get Long on a pullback into Support (broken resistance = support). I'll be watching for Responsive Sellers around the 1293.50-1294 Area; a fast break through that Area would confirm Buyers in Control.

Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7:30 AM (CT), Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 7-Yr Note Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).

Thursday's 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

ES Volume Profile of the current Balance Area

So, you want to become a trader?

2010-11-18T21:40:00.000-06:00

Quantitative Easing Explained

2010-11-14T12:14:00.001-06:00

Thoughts on Next Week

2010-11-07T11:55:00.001-06:00

It's tough to nail a short-term Top in an environment where the Fed is pumping so much capital into the markets (QE2), but we're beginning to see some exhaustion in Nasdaq (NQ), which could lead to a breather in ES as well. NQ has shot up without establishing any solid support, so a pullback (whenever it comes) will probably be swift. Above here, Key Resistance levels in NQ are 2193.50 and 2206.50. ES has been lagging NQ, and could still move higher but the short-term upside from here looks limited (10-20 points). Bigger picture, Buyers are in Control and a pullback to the low 1200s would present a good buying opportunity. The market shouldn't revisit the 1179-1180 Area if the up-trend is to remain intact. 1185-1192 is strong support and longer time-frame investors are likely to load up on the Long side *if* ES pulls back to that Area. As of now, a pullback to 1185-1192 seems unlikely. We have very few economic reports in the coming week, and I anticipate the market to establish another trading range (balance area). From a Trade Location perspective, as price moves higher from here, the Risk/Reward begins shifting in the favor of Sellers and I will be looking for Shorting opportunities at Resistance. That being said, the safe strategy is to play the upside rotations at Support. Thanks to QE2, there's a constant Bid in this market, which means there's an even higher probability of rotation at the Support Zones.

Know Your Trade

2010-08-31T01:51:00.007-05:00

There are so many trading axioms out there such as "the trend is your friend", "don't pick tops and bottoms", "never catch a falling knife", "never short a dull market", "never add to a losing position", and the list goes on. Now, there's nothing wrong with these rules but in my experience, almost all of them can be broken in certain market conditions. The last rule on Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading states: "All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!", and that couldn't be more true.

So, you can break the rules but only if you know that you're breaking the rules, which brings us to the point of this post: Know Your Trade! Know exactly what type of trade you're in. There's nothing wrong with "catching a falling knife" as long as you know you're catching a falling knife and then manage risk accordingly, i.e. you don't continue to add to the losing trade. Same goes for picking tops and bottoms -- nothing wrong with it, as long as you know you're attempting to pick a top or bottom. Once you know and acknowledge the type of trade you're taking, you can then proceed to manage that trade accordingly. For example, how I manage a Trend Trade differs from how I manage a Counter-Trend trade. My risk management is tighter on counter-trend trades because my reason for getting in the trade may be exhaustion at a Resistance Area, and if we get continuation beyond the high of the move, then obviously we haven't reached an exhaustion point yet and I should take a small loss and re-enter at a more favorable price. If I'm taking a trade in direction of Trend within the Context of a Trend Day, I may actually add to the "losing" position if price moves against me by a few ticks as long as everything else still supports my trade idea and my original stop-loss level isn't threatened.

In conclusion, just be honest with yourself. Know what type of trade you're in, and then have a plan for managing each type of trade. If you can't identify the type of trade you're about to take, it's probably a good idea to skip that trade because you're obviously confused on the trade idea from the get-go, and won't have the conviction to see the trade through. I hope you find this helpful, and as always, I welcome your insights on this topic.

My Thoughts on VPOC Shifts

2010-08-28T01:14:00.006-05:00

VPOC stands for Volume Point of Control and is the price level with the heaviest volume for the day. This is the price level with heavy Acceptance by both, Buyers and Sellers. The level signifies Agreement by both parties on Value. Now, if the Buyers and Sellers agree that a certain price is Fair, then the market could remain in balance trading around the VPOC until additional information (a catalyst) changes the opinion on Value or it could head in the opposite direction and test a previous area of Rejection (disagreement). VPOCs serve as great Targets.

Given the above definition, what do you think a shift in the VPOC represents and how should you trade it? For starters, a shift in the VPOC represents a shift in the opinion on Value. But how do you trade it? It depends on the Context. To keep it simple we'll just say Context is either a Trend Day or a Non-Trend Day. Majority of the days are Non-Trend Days so we'll cover that first.

Non-Trend Day Context
For our first example, lets assume we're trading within the Context of a Non-Trend Day and the VPOC shifts Up. Suppose you're Long from 1050 and the VPOC shifts up from 1045 to 1055. The Shift Up tells us that the opinion on Value has changed, but more importantly, it tells us that Buyers and Sellers AGREE on Fair Value at 1055. If they agree on Fair Value, and there's no additional catalyst in the market to change that opinion, then it makes sense to exit or scale out of your Long position because price could just rotate around the VPOC now until new information (a catalyst) is introduced in the market and changes the opinion on Fair Value. Price may also reverse here and test a previous area of rejection (Low Volume Node). The bottom line is, odds of continuation up are now lower and you need to ask yourself whether you would Initiate a new Long position at 1055. If the answer is No, then why shouldn't you scale out or even exit your Long position here?

Trend Day Context
The concept of Value is slightly less critical on a Trend Day because the market is searching for Value. This is where looking at a Composite Volume Profile chart can be really helpful because price will typically head towards a previous Area of Acceptance or Rejection, but on a larger time-frame. On a Trend Day, Price will make a directional move away from Value and Value will catch up to Price. Value is catching up to Price when you see the ES consolidate in a range for a couple of hours after an initiative move. You will save yourself so much money if you're able to identify Trend Days early in the morning but that's a whole separate topic/post. Even on Trend Days, lightening up your position on a VPOC Shift is not a bad idea but just know that the pullbacks will probably be bought and the VPOC could shift again (double-distribution trend days anyone?).

I hope this post clarifies and answers some questions on VPOC Shifts. It's a simple and brief post, and I certainly don't expect it to answer all the questions. This is just my own logical way of interpreting VPOC Shifts. The learning never ends, and I'm open to your insights and welcome your comments on this topic.

Introducing, E-Mini Player Premium

2010-04-04T15:13:00.003-05:00

Going forward, the nightly Key Support/Resistance Areas as well as the Daily Market Review will be posted over at www.EminiPlayer.net.

This public blog will remain in-place, and will continue but the technical analysis will be limited to subscribers at EminiPlayer.net. If you've found my analysis and insights to be helpful to your trading, please head over to www.EminiPlayer.net and sign up through the Subscribe link to gain instant access.

Thanks for your support!

Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-04-01T22:39:00.007-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.

Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.

The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

2010-03-31T22:41:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-03-31T21:33:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

2010-03-30T21:52:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!

Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-03-30T21:14:00.002-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

2010-03-29T21:23:00.005-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 03/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-03-29T20:45:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We had a 5.75 point day session range on anemic volume. Thankfully, days like today only come around once in a while and are typically followed by range expansion, so be prepared for a better trading day tomorrow.

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

2010-03-28T21:09:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last week, we observed strong Responsive Buying and each dip was bought up quickly, so the bias going into Monday is Bullish as long as price remains above Friday's Low (1156.50). On the upside, I would anticipate the Buying to shut off in the 1181-1183 area. The markets have been on a tear, and we haven't had any significant pullback. On the downside, 1139-1141 is a heavy area of Support and I anticipate Strong Buying to take place there if we get down to that area this week. It's also the end of the month, and Bulls sitting on large gains will probably want to close out March on a positive note! Keep in mind that on the larger time-frames, Bears are the ones who are hurting in this market. Trade well!

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 03/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-03-27T14:17:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

2010-03-25T22:53:00.004-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

2010-03-25T21:53:00.003-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Key Levels provided nice entry points (I shorted 1175.25). We only got one Close above 1175.50 on the 5-minute chart; and even then it was only a tick above 75.50. Prices above 1175.50 were rejected all morning. After failing to facilitate trade above 1175, the only logical direction was Down. We got rotation in the Key Areas on the way down and observed initiative selling below 1169 in the last hour of trade. Tomorrow's GDP number should provide clarity on direction, but I would say Bears shouldn't get too comfortable just yet.

ES 5-Minute Chart

ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart