VPOC stands for Volume Point of Control and is the price level with the heaviest volume for the day. This is the price level with heavy Acceptance by both, Buyers and Sellers. The level signifies Agreement by both parties on Value. Now, if the Buyers and Sellers agree that a certain price is Fair, then the market could remain in balance trading around the VPOC until additional information (a catalyst) changes the opinion on Value or it could head in the opposite direction and test a previous area of Rejection (disagreement). VPOCs serve as great Targets.
Given the above definition, what do you think a shift in the VPOC represents and how should you trade it? For starters, a shift in the VPOC represents a shift in the opinion on Value. But how do you trade it? It depends on the Context. To keep it simple we'll just say Context is either a Trend Day or a Non-Trend Day. Majority of the days are Non-Trend Days so we'll cover that first.
Non-Trend Day Context
For our first example, lets assume we're trading within the Context of a Non-Trend Day and the VPOC shifts Up. Suppose you're Long from 1050 and the VPOC shifts up from 1045 to 1055. The Shift Up tells us that the opinion on Value has changed, but more importantly, it tells us that Buyers and Sellers AGREE on Fair Value at 1055. If they agree on Fair Value, and there's no additional catalyst in the market to change that opinion, then it makes sense to exit or scale out of your Long position because price could just rotate around the VPOC now until new information (a catalyst) is introduced in the market and changes the opinion on Fair Value. Price may also reverse here and test a previous area of rejection (Low Volume Node). The bottom line is, odds of continuation up are now lower and you need to ask yourself whether you would Initiate a new Long position at 1055. If the answer is No, then why shouldn't you scale out or even exit your Long position here?
Trend Day Context
The concept of Value is slightly less critical on a Trend Day because the market is searching for Value. This is where looking at a Composite Volume Profile chart can be really helpful because price will typically head towards a previous Area of Acceptance or Rejection, but on a larger time-frame. On a Trend Day, Price will make a directional move away from Value and Value will catch up to Price. Value is catching up to Price when you see the ES consolidate in a range for a couple of hours after an initiative move. You will save yourself so much money if you're able to identify Trend Days early in the morning but that's a whole separate topic/post. Even on Trend Days, lightening up your position on a VPOC Shift is not a bad idea but just know that the pullbacks will probably be bought and the VPOC could shift again (double-distribution trend days anyone?).
I hope this post clarifies and answers some questions on VPOC Shifts. It's a simple and brief post, and I certainly don't expect it to answer all the questions. This is just my own logical way of interpreting VPOC Shifts. The learning never ends, and I'm open to your insights and welcome your comments on this topic.
Do you know if there is some statistics or study done on VPOC shifts. I would like to know the probability of direction it moves on vpoc shifts. In your experience in trading, what would you say is the probability for each scenario. I know that FT71 has a whole webinar planned on this topic.ReplyDelete
Thank you for the post.
I don't have any hard stats on intraday VPOC shiftsReplyDelete
Hi E-mini...Did u learn this through FT71? just out of curiosity because i will like more info on this apart from his webminars and mind over markets? another thing....how can you determine if it going to be a trend day? opening type and context?ReplyDelete
As the post says, "This is just my own logical way of interpreting VPOC Shifts"...so no, I didn't get this from FT71 or I would've certainly given him credit for the idea. Your second question can't really be answered via a comment. I plan on writing a post on that topic later when I have time. Take care bud.ReplyDelete
Hey E-mini could you share some insights in how to identify trend days "to save some money". Your insights about value are of great help. What would u say about identifying the type of day? maybe the opening? i have not have much success with the openingsReplyDelete
Check out http://blog.opentrader.com and sign up to the email list to get access to a video that explains how to anticipate and identify trend days.
Thanks for the article. Few questions though:
1. Don't you think WAP (Weighted Average Traded Price; Price*Volume for all trades)is a better indicator of FAIR value than the VPOC?
2. Can you pls share more information / resources towards VPOC?
Depends on day type. On Trend Days, the VWAP acts as a KEY level and can be used to enter a trade in direction of trend. On non-trend days, price tends to balance around the VWAP/VPOC. I personally use both. It really comes down to contextual awareness and knowing when to use which tool.
If you want to learn my entire methodology, check out the Professional Training Program at http://www.opentrader.com