Friday, March 22, 2013

ES Key Levels and Trade Plan for Friday 03/22/2013

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Overnight, Responsive Buyers held that 1535 Support (to the tick) and pushed ES back above the 1540-1541 short-term resistance. Heading into the day, we have Initial Support at 1539-1541. If the upside is really gonna play out here, ideally Buyers should hold ES above 1539-1541. Below it, we have the Micro Bull/Bear Zone at 1535-1537 but that Zone has been tested a few times now and Sellers could push through it if we head back down there again with any sort of conviction, i.e. on rising volume and stronger downside momentum. The next main support area below 1535 is 1527.25-1529.25.

On the upside, we have Pre-Market Resistance at 1545-1547 followed by Initial Resistance at 1549.75-1551.75. Although we could get a rotation at the 45-47 Pre-Mkt Resistance, the primary upside objective above 1539-1541 is the 1549.75-1551.75 Initial Resistance Zone. We'll judge the strength of the market once ES reaches Initial Resistance to decide what to do next. If volume and internals are healthy, we'll simply use Initial Resistance as a profit target on Longs. If it looks like the market is running out of steam (below average volume and modest upside NYSE TICK readings), we'll consider taking a Short at Initial Resistance targeting the 1545-1547 Zone. Above 1551.75, we have Resistance at 1555.25-1557.25, which provides better Trade Location for Shorts.

Overall, there aren't any scheduled economic reports today so we could get a range-bound, Balanced session. We'll keep an eye on relative volume and the NYSE TICK to gauge if the day type is playing out as expected. Short-term bias is Bullish above 1539-1541.

Econ Data

5-Minute ES Chart with Key S/R Zones + Volume Profile
Click to enlarge

Thursday, March 14, 2013

ES Key Levels and Trade Plan for Thursday 03/14/2013

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Context was set for a break of the recent 3-day range and ES broke out to new highs in the overnight session.

Considering we have no other economic catalysts due today and have several important economic reports scheduled for tomorrow (+ quad witching tomorrow), it's unlikely that ES will continue to move up in a linear fashion. By that, I mean Contextually, there's a higher probability of Responsive Sellers being active at Resistance for a pullback to the 1549.25-1551.25 Pre-Market Support (breakout test) and potentially the 1544.50-1546.50 Initial Support Zone. The overall context is still Bullish though so we will look for Long setups on pullbacks into Support, but we'll also be mindful that the upside could be limited to the 1555.50-1557.50 Pre-Market Resistance Zone or the 1560.50-1562.50 Initial Resistance Zone. So, unless we're seeing strong momentum to the upside and strong internals indicative of a Trend Up day, we'll look for Short setups at Resistance and Long setups at Support.

Heading into the open, we have the overnight VPOC/HVN around 1553.25-1554.25 and that area can be used as a very short-term gauge of strength/weakness. ES is set to open above Value and the 1st test of 1555.50-1557.50 can attract Responsive Sellers targeting the 1550 gap and 1549.25 prior VPOC. 1544.50-1546.50 Initial Support is a good area to look for a Long setup, targeting 1553.25-1554.25 and 1555.50-1557.50.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, and Current Account at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).