Friday, August 21, 2009
Consider this an early Weekend edition. There are 3 "times-of-day" I monitor. One is obviously the open to 12:00. The second is lunchtime; typically 12:00 to 1:00 or so, maybe 1:15, and then the "3:00 session" which can result in a good move. The 3:00 session also includes 3:30.
There's always the possibility of a move starting in this time span as the bond market closes. CNBC blamed todays move on short covering. I don't care. I just look for the possibility of a move. If you look at yesterdays chart we had an almost identical setup as well, right at the same time. Today was also options expiration day. A lot of people will offer general advice such as "OPEX day will be a dud, it won't go anywhere", or "never touch a move after 3:00 on OPEX day". As any 16 year would say..."Whatever". Over the last couple years...years of watching charts about every day...I have come up with a few "Truths". Now, as a disclaimer, I'm a scalper mostly, so what I see on a chart may be of no interest to someone trading a longer TF (timeframe). But here's the "Truth" that applies here for me at least:
"EVERYDAY HAS OPPORTUNITIES! Don't assume you know what the day will be like coming into it. The economic news, world events, trading calendar, opinions of "experts" -- none of it matters. Good setups happen on FOMC day, days before a holiday, and others. NEVER go into a day with the piss-poor attitude that "nothing will happen". Just read the trend / PA as if you have no idea what the news was, or what day it is."
(Hopefully my langauge doesn't offend some. It is meant to be a motivator for me) The chart shows 1 minute bars, with an upper TL (trendline) that was broken right near the end. By the way, I stalked this all through a slow, boring afternoon, and then missed it. Why? I was a "dick for 3 ticks". I wanted a pullback to the 9477 triple top. And after I missed that I wanted a pullback to 9493 (a S/R level not drawn on this chart) that never materialized. That's the way it