Monday, January 31, 2011

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Monday 1/31/11

Notes for Sunday Night Session (posted Sunday before Globex Open)
We're working within the 1267.50-1299.50 Balance Area. A break below 1267.50 could bring additional liquidation, and could take price down to the 1257-1258 Area. Considering the market has been in an up-trend, ES could Balance in the 1267.50-1286.50 range. Sellers are in Control below 1286.50, which means greater edge on Short side below there.

Trade Plan for Monday 1/31
ES opened on weakness Sunday evening, and the break below 1267.50 resulted in a fast liquidation down to 1262.25. Responsive Buyers were active on the break and ES recovered more than 100% of the overnight down move, and is currently trading in the 1277 Area. We have Resistance at 1279.75-1281.75, and I'll be watching for Responsive Sellers there on first test with targets at 1275, and 1271.50 (Open Gap). I expect Responsive Buyers to be active on tests below 1268.50. We have Initial Resistance at 1284.75-1286.75, and I anticipate that Area to cap the upside. Price breaking above that Area could put Buyers back in Control. A break and hold below 1275 would confirm Sellers in Control. With the Chicago PMI due at 8:45 AM (released at 8:42 to Subscribers), we could get a choppy open. The expected Opening Type is an Open Auction In Range. Even if we break below 1267.50, my expectation is for a Balanced Session.

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (released to Subscribers at 8:42 AM CT), and Farm Prices at 2:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

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