Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday evening)
Today's "P"-Shaped Profile is indicative of Short Covering, but we have to keep the Bullish Context in mind and realize that this is Short Covering within an up-trend. We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. We have Resistance at 1316.50-1318.50. A break and hold above 1316.50-1318.50 would confirm Buyers in Control, and could lead to new highs. A break below 1310 could lead to the gap fill at 1307.25, followed by a test of the 1303.75-1305.75 Area. Bigger picture, bias remains bullish above 1303.25.
Trade Plan for Friday 2/11
We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. ES balanced below 1316 in the overnight session and built Acceptance at 1314.75. The 1316.50-1318.50 Resistance identified in last night's Review/Analysis post has capped the upside in pre-market. Heading into the day session, the primary catalyst is the Consumer Sentiment # out at 8:55 AM (CT) -- and considering the market is in Balance, the expected opening type is an Open Auction In Range. Keep an eye on the 1314-1316 Area to determine Control. Holding above 1314-1316 would indicate Buyers in Control, and a break & hold below would indicate Sellers in Control. We have an open gap from yesterday's Close at 1318.75, but holding above 1316 opens the door for new highs so I won't be too aggressive on the Short side up there. The next resistance level above 1322.25 is at 1326, followed by strong resistance at 1329.25-1331.25, and I expect any Buying to shut off there. On the downside, a break below 1310 could take us to the 1307.25 gap fill, followed by a test of the 1304-1306 Support Area. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1303.25, and bigger picture bias remains Bullish above that level.
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).
ES 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones