Thursday, January 7, 2010

Key S/R Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 01/08/2010 (Nonfarm Payrolls)

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Nonfarm Payrolls data comes out tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM (cst), and NFP days behave in a certain way. First thing you should do is look at past NFP days to get an idea of the typical "behavior". Check the following links for last month's posts for the NFP release:
NFP days typically consist of two moves; a swing in one direction (reaction) followed by a swing in the other direction. Momentum is high, so be careful fading momentum unless price is at an extreme. Another important point to keep in mind is that typically the Initial Balance High/Low is put in place right around the Cash Open (8:30 AM cst). The typical reactionary swing is 15 points or so; but with the reduced volatility, I'm anticipating a 9-12 point reactionary swing (just an estimate). The Key Levels still apply, but I would look at where price is trading at 7:30 AM, and then rely on a Support/Resistance Zone 9-12 points away from that level. 1127-1128 has been a heavily accepted area over the last week. If that level breaks, we could see some fast liquidation down to the 1118-1119 area.

Econ Data
Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls at 7:30 AM (cst) and Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


  1. i finally found a blog that will help me recover my losses..Tnx and pls keep posting.. novice trader with 15 k loss for less than 6 mo

  2. EMP

    What do you use to come up with your resistance/support zones? If it is volume how far back do you go with your data?

  3. EMP

    Do you use volume numbers for your s/r levels?
    If so how far back does your data go?


  4. Hi E-Mini Player,
    My name is Javier from Spain and I found your blog a few days ago. Just tell you I am a little bit scared, now the market is closing and you have guess the price range again perfectly (min 1132 and max 1142) Congratulatios!!!!! How do you do it? It is amazing!!!! I am starting trading, please if you can give any tips, or tell me what to do I will appreciate very much.
    Sorry for my english, I try to do my best.
    Thank you very much
    Best Regards

  5. travelbug, glad to have you on here. Losses are part of the game. Just don't try to recover 6 months of losses in 6 days/weeks. Trade according to Plan and slowly, you'll recover the losses and move your account into the black.

    Les, it's a combination of Volume Profile, Fib Retracements/Extensions, price action S/R and historical range/volatility analysis. As far as Volume goes, I go back to the previous "significant" High/Low, which is 1109 these days.

    Javier, welcome to the Blog. There's a lot of content here; just go over the past posts to get an idea on how I view the market. I post a Market Review/Analysis every day; review those charts to learn about the significant levels that I monitor.

    Hope you all banked $$ today! Although there was a lot of chop in the middle of the day, the scenario and levels played out very well. Have a good weekend!


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