Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500) for Tuesday 12/08/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
I'll be pretty busy with technology work for remainder of the week, so the posts will be brief. We've been coiling for a few weeks now, and if there's one thing you can count on in the market (and in life), it's Change! I'm anticipating a big and fast move in the near future; perhaps even as early as tomorrow. Here's the Daily ES chart showing the Big Picture:

ES - Daily with Fib Projection/Retracment Levels

As you can see, price nearly hit the 138.20% upper target on the previous swing before selling off and testing the lower end of the channel. We've already hit the 127.20% extension at 1119 in the current up swing.

I'm anticipating a break-out move based on the triangle pattern on the Hourly chart.

ES Hourly Chart

Short-term bias is bullish above 1101 and bearish below 1099. Please refer to Key Levels chart for support/resistance. If we break below 1101, I'm NOT anticipating a bounce at 1099. Instead, I'm anticipating a move down to 1093 with a bounce at first touch of the 1091-1093 support zone. Beyond that, we could tag the 1086 and 1082 areas. Above 1108, I'm anticipating a move to the 1118-1119 zone, and a pullback on first touch. I'm not expecting price to sell off if it tags 1119; instead I'm anticipating a pullback and another push to 1122+. I'm anticipating a trend day so will be very careful in fading the momentum into support/resistance areas tomorrow. I think we're going to slice through some of these levels when price starts moving, so I'll be waiting for confirmation before taking any counter-trend trades.

Redbook out at 7:55 AM (cst) tomorrow morning. Trade well!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

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