Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Thursday 12/17/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating range expansion and a trend day tomorrow. Pay attention to the overnight trend going into the open; anticipating that trend to remain intact for better part of the day. It goes without saying, that trades should be taken based on real-time price action. It's OK to anticipate, as long as you're willing to toss the idea if it's not working out.

Initial support is in the 1100.25-1101.75 zone, with 1096.25-1097.50 below that on a range extension. On the upside, initial resistance is in the 1107.50-1109 area, with the range extension target/resistance around 1114. I'm bullish above 1109, neutral to slightly bullish above 1100 and bearish below 1099. Regardless of direction, I'm anticipating rotational moves where price takes a pause at the support/resistance zones, rotates 2-4 points and then continues in direction of trend. Opening above Wednesday's IB Low (1108) would also be bullish; bearish if we open below. Like I said before, note the trend in the overnight Globex session and trade in direction of trend, until it is broken. Currently, the trend is bearish, but price is trading within the Initial Support zone, so I would not initiate shorts in this area since I'm anticipating a bounce on first touch.

Economic Data
Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 am (cst). Trade well!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


  1. Hey E-mini Player,

    Great analysis, i'm a daily reader! Regarding your post on key levels for Thursday. Just wondering if you can give some insight into your thoughts on why thursday may be a trend day and especially how you anticipated that there maybe an overnight trending move.

  2. What made you anticipate the range expansion today? Other than the number of tight days lately. Why today? Just curious. Thanks, great site.

  3. Tony and GH; as you already know, range contraction/chop leads to range expansion and trend. I also went over charts of similar days in the past (similar econ data + options expiration) to get a feel for the type of movement to expect.

    From a Market Profile perspective, opening outside of the previous day's range creates an imbalance, and movement away from value is initiative and a trend day is likely.

    An important point to note is that I was open to both directions. If we had opened below the previous day's range, but then moved back up above the previous day's IB low, I would've anticipate a test and possible breakout of the previous day's IB high since rotation back into the range would be a rejection of the downside breakout and the corrective move back up would be indicative of responsive buyers.

    Hope that makes sense.

  4. I am following your levels and just playing with paper money for now (got too stressed there for a while) and I agree with you. Your calls do play out nicely. How you arrive at your conclusions of whether it will be a trend day or a short range extension day? Your calls seem to be on the mark since I've been following your site.


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