Monday, December 21, 2009

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Monday 12/21/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a strong rejection of the 1088 area on Friday, and we're currently building value above previous week's close (1098). I'm bullish above 1099, bearish below 1094 and neutral to slightly bullish in between. I'd hold on to Shorts a bit longer than Longs in this environment though.

Bullish Scenario
In the event of an up move, I'm anticipating price to offer pullbacks at the key resistance zones, and then continue rotating up. Ideally, price remains above 1098-1099, but we could also see a retrace down to 1094, followed by a bounce back above 1099. In that event, I'd be looking for continuation to the upside. 1103.50 is the Monthly VPOC, so that area may act as short-term resistance as well. In the event that price manages to move above 1109.50, I would anticipate a quick move up to 1111.50-1112 range extension area. There's also a lot going in the 1113-1115 area. On the upside, 1117 is a 100% extension of Friday's range. Pending some breaking news from the White House or other Govt agency, I'm not expecting price to just slice through all that resistance. Looks like it will take some work to make it through all that.

Bearish Scenario
In the event of a down move, I'm anticipating a bounce at Initial Support (1094-1095.50). If the bounce is weak, and we continue down, I would look for the selling to accelerate. I'm anticipating down moves to be fast paced, and on heavy volume. If we break 1088, anticipating a range extension down to the low 1080s, or more. On the downside, 1074.25 is a 100% extension of Friday's range.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


  1. Hi EMP

    What parameters are you using for your monthly VPOC? RTH or 24 hours? MTD or fixed number of days? My monthly VPOC is 1108.25

  2. Les, I'm using 24-hour sessions on the Monthly chart. We've seen a number of large moves in the overnight Globex session over the last year, and I see the overnight session becoming even more important in the future, so I include the full 24-hour session for my calculations and trading.

  3. What software do you use to derive that chart?

  4. TradeStation --


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