Sunday, November 15, 2009

Key Levels (S&P 500 and Crude) for Monday 11/16/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
ES is currently trading above Friday's Value Area and Point of Control, which is bad news for bears. If we open above 1096 tomorrow morning, I would expect a test of the 11/11 highs at 1103.25. There are a lot of stops above that area, so I would not be looking to initiate a short around the 1103-1104 level. Letting the stops get blown out before shorting seems prudent. 1108-1109 looks like a nice spot to take a stab at shorts (if price gets above 1103.25). On the downside, 1088 is Key, IMHO. As long as 1088 holds, bulls are in OK shape. A break below 1088, and price could test 1082.50. If price gets to 1082.50, I would anticipate a stop-run at that level, and price could break through that and slip to 1079. 1076 is Strong Support and I would anticipate that level holding on first touch (good place to enter Long). All the levels mentioned here are probably fine for scalps, but if the goal is a few handles/points, then being patient and entering trades around key levels is critical. Retail Sales data is out at 7:30 am (central) tomorrow morning. Lets see how this scenario works out. As always, trade what you see!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Remember that chart I posted the other day showing the bearish channel on the Crude (CL) Hourly? Crude bounced off the lower end of the channel on Friday. The key levels on Crude have been working out very nicely. Looking at the Volume Profile on Crude, we can see that there isn't a lot of interest (volume) below the $76.35 area ($76.50 was marked as support). Crude opened at $76.58 today on Globex, and similar to the S&P, is currently trading above Friday's Value Area and Point of Control. It's building value above the $76.90 level, so go ahead and pencil that in as support. Break of $76.90 and we could test that $76.35-76.50 area in a hurry. On the upside, expecting minor resistance in the $77.60s. The heavier resistance is in the $78-78.25 area. I realize that's a wide $0.25 range, but based on my brief experience with Crude, it moves in big swings, and often overshoots so it's difficult to pick a specific level. Picking levels is easier in a liquid market like the ES.

CL - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

CL - Hourly Chart in a Bearish Channel


  1. Hey E-mini, is Daniel here....hello again....

    one question

    Why did you find resistance at 1090.25 into the daily E-mini sp chart? on nov. 16 ....Is it because of the fib extension. Or is something else that helped you find it?



  2. Do you mean 1109.25? That's the 100% extension of the previous day's range. There was also some confluence there based on extensions off the Hourly chart.

  3. Oops , yea sorry e-mini...yes that resistance !!!!

    how do you meassure that extension? from which point?


  4. Daniel, set the Fib levels to 127.2, 138.2, 161.8 and 200%. Measure the previous day's High to Low to get upside range extension targets. Measure from previous day's Low to High to get downside range extension targets. 127.2-138.2 is your first target zone. 200% would mark trend extremes. I use the continuous @ES contract which includes the overnight Globex price data. Hope that helps.


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