Thursday, November 26, 2009

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Friday 11/27/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
In case you guys were busy with the Thanksgiving festivities and missed the news, Dubai requested a debt 'standstill' till May; essentially saying they can't make payments on their debt until May, 2010 (full story on Yahoo Finance). It's a small loan - roughly $60 billion! That, in turn, shook up the world markets and the S&P futures took a nose dive down to 1082.75 (1082.50 is a Key level). So, now the question is: will 1082.50 hold? The Dubai issue has been on the radar for a while now, so I don't know whether it's really a sufficient catalyst for a big sell off, and not to mention, $60Billion is not really a catastrophe. But anything can happen so best to stick to the charts and levels.

Bullish Scenario (if 1082.50 Holds)
If 1082.50 holds, I'm thinking a move back up to 1097 is do-able, but I'm not anticipating it to be in one quick shot; although even that scenario is certainly possible if shorts decide to cover all at once at the open (unlikely). I'm anticipating price to make a rotational move up, making pit stops at the resistance levels along the way (refer to chart for levels). Initial area of resistance is 1087.50-1088.50, above that we have 1093.75-1097 (kinda wide, but that's how I'm reading it right now). 1100-1101.50 above that. Longs are counter-trend for now, so buy the dips, sell the rips!

Bearish Scenario (if 1082.50 breaks)
Below this area, we have initial support at 1078.50, and stronger support at 1076. Anticipating that area to hold on first touch; good area to scale out of short and reload on rotation. 1072-1075 are the range extension targets, and would be the second area to scale out of shorts, or even initiate a Long position. 1069.50 after that, and 1064 is the Final target if we get a big sell off.

Good luck tomorrow!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


  1. IMHO, 1082 holds through Friday.

  2. Price at 1082.50 right now..damn, it just dropped to 1077.50 within a couple seconds!

  3. Well, just as soon as I posted this, ES fell through 1082 and hit 1077.5. My low bid on Jan ES calls got filled. I would be surprised if there is not at least a half gap fill coming up Friday morning. a sceptic would suggest that Black Friday shopping must be protected.


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