Monday, May 4, 2009

Monday 05/04/09 - ES Over 900 (Finally!)

I've been expecting (hoping for) a break above 900 for a while, so it's good to see it finally materialize. Unfortunately, price didn't pullback much so it was tough finding a good area to buy. If you didn't buy on the pullback to 889, you were left trading consolidation chop. My problem is, after ES makes a big up move, I have a hard time entering Long because I feel like price is "too high" and will reverse on me. Price has reversed hard so many times off the intraday high in the past few weeks, that it's a little scary buying above the first hour high; especially when price is so close to 900, which a lot of people perceive as a psychological barrier or resistance zone. Bottom line is, I need to set my biases aside and trade price. As day traders, we don't buy/sell value so the specific price shouldn't matter. We trade momentum. So as long as momentum is supporting the direction of my trade, I shouldn't be afraid to get in. Here's how today broke down in terms of performance across 18 trades:

% Break-Even: 31.58%
% Win 47.37%
% Loss 21.05%
Avg Win 1.00
Avg Loss -0.425
Largest Win (pts) 2.00
Largest Loss (pts) -1.50
Total Win (pts) 9.00
Total Loss (pts) -4.25
Net Gain/Loss (pts) +4.75

At this point, I'm looking for 879 to hold as support on a pullback.

I'll post a marked up 610 tick bar trade chart; it doesn't have all of my trades, just the ones I had time to mark in real-time. I'm using Infinity's execution platform so the trades aren't auto-plotted on my TradeStation charts now.

ES 610 Tick Bar Chart (Morning Trades)

ES 610 Tick Bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Open Gap at 876.50

ES (60 Min) - Looking for 879-886.75 as an area of support on a pullback

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