Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Tuesday 05/12/09 - Never Be Satisfied

I'll never be 100% satisfied with my results as there's always room for improvement, but I'm particularly disappointed in today's results (+7.00 pts) because of the (easy) opportunities available today. For example, I was short at 911.75 during the open, and exited for ONE point at 910.75 even though the charts gave me absolutely no indication to exit. I was also Long at 899 and 901.50 in the afternoon before ES rocketed back up, and on both occasions I exited for 2-3 ticks. Both of these sequences were "no heat" sequences, meaning price never really went against me so I took no heat on the positions. The quick exits would be fine if my style was closer to Don Miller's or if I was trading his size (30-100+ lots); but neither of those apply to me. I trade 1-2 contracts, and risk 5-8 ticks to make 3-5 Points. The method supports it, and today the market supported it. My style of trading doesn't work too well on narrow range days (working on improving there too btw), which means I need to push the accelerator when the market sets itself up to be in sync with my method. The only excuse I can fall back on today is that I was busy coding an e-Business website enhancement for one of my clients, so I wasn't 100% focused on the market (or the coding for that matter). But deep down I know that's all it is; an excuse, because I should have nailed the opening sequence. I also made the mistake of trying to catch a falling knife which cost me -5.00 pts.

As an intraday trader, I believe I should be able to capture at least 50% of the day's range, so I've added the ES Daily Range and P/L as % of Daily Range to my metrics to track how much of that daily range I'm able to capture. Here's how the Stats broke down for today:

# of Trades 36
% Break-Even: 30.56
% Win 50.00
% Loss 19.44
Avg Win 0.79
Avg Loss -1.04
Largest Win (pts) 2.00
Largest Loss (pts) -2.00
Total Win (pts) 14.25
Total Loss (pts) -7.25
Net Gain/Loss (pts) 7.00
ES Daily Range 19.50
P/L as % of Daily Range 35.90

Looking ahead, bullish bias still intact, in my opinion. Yes, we've moved lower but price was unable to take out the 893.50 low from 05/05/09, and closed above 900. 887-891 area is important. I'll also be watching the 901-904.50 area for support; 910 and 918 areas for resistance. Retail Sales data out at 7:30 AM (central) tomorrow.

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Gap filled in the first 10 minutes

ES (Daily) - Perspective


  1. Another stat I track (but don't report on my blog) is the % of time you are in the market. (i.e. -if all your trades add up to mkt exposure of 1 total hour, divided by 6.5 hours in day = 15%) You may want to consider that too since you are tracking % of day's range you can capture.

    Good trading today!

  2. Hey E-mini,
    Retooled my blog. New name. New address. New look. LOL

  3. Why 50% of the day's range? Seems a random figure...?

  4. Ross, as a day trader, I essentially trade momentum and volatility, which is reflected in the daily range. For example, during a narrow range day, with lets say an 8 pt range, I wouldn't expect to bank 15 pts because the market simply didn't offer the opportunity.

    I didn't want to set a static 10 pt or 15 pt goal because not every day will offer the same opportunities. By measuring my performance against the daily range, I am measuring myself based on the type of day. On a 30 pt range day, I would expect myself to nail 15 pts. This is just a preliminary goal; I'm sure good day traders can pull even 100% of the day's range or more, but it's a start. I'm also experimenting with various metrics to see which one can get me to push harder and improve my trading. They're all just mental exercises.


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