Tuesday, December 23, 2008

12/23/2008 - Low volume chop

8:45 AM - Short 1 ES @ 872 (new system on 610 tick chart) Stop @ 876.50
8:47 AM - Short 1 ES @ 873 (just adding to position) Stop @ 876.50.
8:50 AM - I'm hoping for a short sell signal on the 1830 tick chart. Those signals are usually good for 3-5 points, if not more. Volume trend is at 873 and should act as resistance at this point. Just looked over at the Balance chart, and this is a really tight opening range.
8:52 AM - Not really liking the price action here. Spinning top on the 30 min. Indecision
8:55 AM - Sell signal is still in effect on the 610 tick chart, but a buy signal fired on the 1 min chart (new system). I'm holding the short position; I think this system is more effective on tick charts. Lets see who wins; tick vs time.
8:59 AM - Covering 1 ES @ 874 for -2 pt loss. Leaving stop @ 876.50 on the other contract.
9:04 AM - Shitty volume; weird price action right now.
9:06 AM - XLE (energy) dropping; should take down the market with it. If market holds despite the weakness in XLE, I'm out of that short
9:09 AM - Finally a small drop in ES
9:10 AM - Exit 1 ES Short @ 871.00 for +2 pts. Net for the day = 0 points.
9:12 AM - ES is now trading at 873.50, so exiting that short was a good call. Now I'm wondering whether I should look to re-enter short, or just wait for price to make a decisive move in one direction and then re-enter in direction of the move on a pullback.
9:14 AM - Short signal fired on the 610 tick and 1 min on new system. Re-entered short on 1 contract @ 873. Stop @ 876.50 again.
9:15 AM - Almost at my stop in downtown Chicago so either need to leave this position on with a stop and target, or just bail now. I looked over at the Balance chart and noticed that the 1st hour low was not broken. Not a good sign for shorts.
9:17 AM - Exited short position at 872 for +1 pt. Time to close up here on the train and head in to the office.

9:39 AM - Just got to the office...good thing I exited that short. Overall, decent market reads this morning. I think I would have netted more points with my current system/method, over the "new" system that I'm currently forward testing. Double top forming here at 878 level. Want to short it but have to run to a meeting in a few minutes and don't want to get into a position I can't monitor.
9:42 AM - Just took another glance and ES is down to 874.50. Guess I should have taken that double-top short setup. Would have been good for at least 2 points. New system did not fire a sell signal on that fast down move.

9:51 AM - I'd like to take a short in this 875 area with a stop at 878. Almost everything looks good...my only concern is the On-Balance Volume. It has been rising throughout this chop. Accumulation? Probably best to sit this out until a decisive move has been made.

10:02 AM - Was in a meeting. ES now trading at 872.75. Maybe I should stop second-guessing myself?

10:08 AM - Short signal came in at 9:59 AM at 874.25 on the "new" system. I wasn't around my computer to take it but that would have been good for 2-3 points. ES trading at 871.25 at the moment.

10:21 AM - ES trading at 869 now. Talk about missing a sweet shorting opportunity! One of my problems is, once I miss a good entry, I'm very hesitant to get in at a worse price. I haven't really figured out whether that's really a "problem" or not; as it may actually help keep me out of some low-probability trades.

10:49 AM - Pull up a 30-min chart and draw fib retracement levels from prior swing low (852.75) to swing high (878) and you'll notice that ES bounced off the 50% retracement level. Volume trend is at 872 at the moment, and I would expect that area to act as resistance. Shorting into that area could prove to be profitable. Really depends on how price acts around 871.50-872. I probably won't be around to watch it at that area since I have a lot of work to wrap-up today.

11:42 AM - Long 1 ES @ 861 (my method). Stop @ 858
11:52 AM - Exit 1 ES @ 863 for +2 pts. Why exit at 863? 863 = Volume Trend. Now there's a chance that price could bust right through this and go to the next target of 870 but it was printing a doji on the 610 tick chart, and I'll be heading out to a lunch meeting soon, so figured I'd book the 2 points rather than leave an open position in this light volume market where price can be moved in either direction pretty easily by the bigger players. This previous swing low could very well turn out to be the low of the day.

1:31 PM - Volume Trend at 868 at the moment. Missed another short entry at 866-867 :(

2:26 PM - Symmetrical triangle holding beautifully on the Daily. Tempted to take longs above 852; stop out at 852. Put in a buy order at 859, no fill. Price has moved away to 862 now. Not chasing this into the close. Last 1/2 hour is a higher risk time to open new positions.

2:37 PM - Long 1 ES @ 859.50. Stop @ 856.50 (Buy signal on new system, 3 min chart)
2:38 PM - Add 1 ES @ 858.50. Stop @ 856.50
2:39 PM - Moving stop to 855.00
2:43 PM - Wouldn't mind adding 1 more contract at 856.50.
2:46 PM - 14 more minutes to go. Getting abit antsy here. Wanna exit already!
2:49 PM - Exit 1 ES @ 860 for +1.50 pts, Exit 1 ES @ 859.50 for break-even
2:51 PM - Done with trading for the day. Symmetrical triangle still holding on the daily.
3:10 PM - +4.5 pts/contract net for the day.

Symmetrical Triangle Holding on the Daily

Market Structure/Balance (5-min)

No comments:

Post a Comment

At the minimum, please provide your name or Twitter handle when posting comments. Do not post as Anonymous. Comments that contain links to commercial websites will be marked as spam.