Monday, March 23, 2009

Monday 03/23/09 - S&P up 54 pts! Really?

Given the last couple of week's price action, I was cautious trading to the short side (obvious by my consistent effort to BUY last Friday), but I wasn't bullish enough to go long as often as I should have today. I scalped for +2.25 pts to the short side right off the open due to weakness in XLF at the time. I then entered a short position at 792.25 because ES broke the 791.50 area. What I failed to notice was that ES broke that level just by a TICK, and it cost me -2 pts! I should have waited for a decisive break and then entered on a retracement. Lesson learned (again). I corrected that mistake by going Long at 794 on the .618 retracement of the next up swing. I had to leave the house for a bit, so exited early for +2 points (target was 800). When I returned to the screens around noon, price had been drifting down/sideways, and was below the 50% level, and overall looked pretty weak, so I entered short at 797 but was stopped out at 798.75 (-1.75 pts) two minutes later, on what looked to be a stop-run. All the indicators were pointing down, so I re-entered short at 797.25 and covered at 794.50 for +2.75 pts. I had to attend a birthday lunch so closed down a little past 1 PM with + 3.25 pts on the day, with a profit factor of 1.76

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Late Morning and Afternoon Trades)

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Price Action)

Open/Unfilled Gap from 763.75

ES/$TICK (3-Min)

ES 15-Minute - Price could easily retrace to the 791 area and still be in an up-trend.


  1. Would you have made money in the P.M.?

    ie... would you have taken the bitch for all she was worth? ;)

  2. I don't like doing hindsight analysis since it's so easy to say I could have pulled 5-10 more points, when in reality, you and I both know it's very different and difficult processing the information in real-time. If history is any guide, I probably would have given back the morning gains in the afternoon session LOL :-D

  3. Nice job on the day; it looks like your consistency is improving, which is awesome.

    And don't talk smack on the hindsight analysis! That can be a very useful exercise. It's just like reviewing game film, which all good teams, players and coaches do. Being mindful of what you did well and not so well can have a very positive impact on your subconscious mind and I think we rely on that a lot during the trading day. It also helps you better recognize the patterns so that when you are trading in real time, you have a better chance at executing. So don't be a hater, man! :)

    How is the job hunt coming by the way? You live in the heartland - get a trading job hell's sake!

  4. Hi Stan,

    I'm all for hindsight analysis, and it's something I do every day after market close. What I mean't to say was "hindsight trading", where you look back at a chart and say "Yea, I could've pulled 10 points if I was trading that"; I am opposed to hindsight trade calls, but I'm all for hindsight analysis. I agree, it's very useful and drills the patterns into the mind. That's exactly why I mark up my trade charts. I also markup other charts that I don't post here on the Blog, and it's essentially hindsight analysis :)

    Regarding the job search; I haven't really been pushing too hard. I have a couple of recruiters trying to find me something, and have lunch scheduled with one more recruiter for tomorrow. I'll be out of town on a business trip the first 2 weeks in April, and will really begin the search when I get back.


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