As the title hints, this is post# 100 on the Blog :)
I did not get to the screens till about 10:40 Am (central). The first two trades in the morning were definitely not proper setups, and that's why I scratched the first one and took a stop hit of -2 points on the second one. Even the third trade was a bit early but I took it because we had decent support below at 777 . It was a fairly choppy day with jerky price movements. I was working on the IT project while trading today, so I wasn't focused missed several setups simply because I wasn't watching the market around those times. I didn't want to chase the setup and get in at a poor price, so just stayed out trades all afternoon (+1 for discipline). Ended the day at +$200, with a 50% win rate. I'm not too concerned about the win rate, but the statistic I do care about is the Avg Winner vs. Avg Loser (Profit Factor) to make sure my Risk:Reward is in balance, and I'm glad to say the Avg Winner was 2.73 times the Avg Loser (goal is to keep the profit factor above 2.00; higher the better).
ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)
Going forward, today's down move could simply have been a corrective retracement. I'm trying to trade from a neutral position, and the way I see it, today's price action remained above the .618 retracement from prior swing low to swing high on the 15-minute chart. The low of day was at 777.25; a tick above the 777 level. If we break 777, I'd be looking for the 770-773.50 area to hold. Below that we have 761.75 and mid 750s. I'm not too concerned with the bigger picture but I think it helps to know significant price levels.
ES 15-Minute Chart - OBV MA still positive indicating a lack of systemic selling in the markets.
Gap filled within first 30 minutes
ES/$TICK (3-Min) The $TICK MAs just hovering around zero-line (highlighted in blue) are indicative of the lack of direction (chop) in the markets.